- August 17, 2024
- 5:40 pm
- Ukraine
Sergey Klimovsky, Ukrainian historian and blogger, analyzesWhat Events in Kursk region could play a key role in reducing the likelihood of an Iranian attack on Israel.
Shoigu, writes Klimovsky, flew to Tehran on August 5 and in a conversation with them, President Masoud Pezeshkian said that Iran “in no way seeks to expand the scale of the war and crisis,” but Israel “will definitely be held accountable for its crimes and impudence.” On Sunday, August 4, Anthony Blinken met with the G7 foreign ministers and said that Iran would attack Israel on August 5 or 6. His words had already “leaked” to the American news aggregator Axios on August 5 and from there to the world media.
Iran did not attack Israel on August 6, but on that day the ZSU unexpectedly entered the Kursk regionIs there a connection between all this?
It is logical to start from the beginning, writes Klimovsky, from July 31, when the Israeli special services sent the head of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh to the houris. Ayatollah Khamenei convened the Supreme Council for National Security on the same day and demanded that Israel be punished immediately. But it turned out that not everything was so simple, and on August 3 the Council met again. It was declared at the Council that the IRGC would certainly carry out Khamenei's order and severely punish Israel, but there are nuances.
From the Council meeting, it was also quickly “leaked” to Reuters via the Gulf to Dubai that Tehran knows that Haniyeh was killed by a 7 kg projectile and not by a drone that flew in through a window, as many people claimed in the heat of the moment. And certainly not by a missile from an airplane.
In Israel they realized that the Persians were on the right track and decided to help. As a result, on August 5, the Jewish Chronicle, the world's oldest Jewish newspaper since 1844, published an article entitled “The Complete Inside Story of How Israel Killed Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Minute by Minute.”
The headline was not deceiving. The article described in detail how two IRGC officers recruited by the Mossad blew up Haniyeh with a bomb disguised as a brick that was lying under his bed. Then, within two hours, they left Iran. Five more agents, dressed in green, sat in trees and watched the house on a hill in the forest where Haniyeh was staying. Moreover, the Mossad had video footage from the house, and they were monitoring in real time the actions of the IRGC officers who arrived at the scene of the explosion.
The author of this article is Elon Perry, who served 25 years in the IDF special forces and has lived in London since 2010, where he lectures on the Middle East and writes for newspapers. A source that is more than trustworthy.
The article, Klimovsky writes, appeared at 3 p.m. London time and Shoigu could not read it, since he was at a reception with the President of Iran. What Shoigu said is unknown. Judging by how sources in the Kremlin “leaked” en masse to British, German and Israeli newspapers that Shoigu was persuading the Iranians not to punish Israel too much and not to escalate the situation, he said the exact opposite. This is also confirmed by the zero coverage of his trip in the Russian media and several publications about military cooperation between Iran and Russia in the Israeli and European media. The intelligence community reported in them that Iran asked Shoigu for radars and air defense systems in exchange for its missiles and drones. Some publications wrote about hundreds of Russian military personnel who are already learning to use its missiles in Iran, which looks more like disinformation.
At this point, three storylines emerge: the nuances with Haniyeh, the elections to Hamas, and Shoigu with the Kursk region.
The nuances are that Hania was sent to the houris not with the help of modern technology, but by the old-fashioned method, even having to climb trees. They sent him to the homeland of epic assassins and by the hands of IRGC officers, which is doubly insulting for this organization. In this situation, a missile strike on Israel is like coming to a sword duel with a machine gun and then being indignant about why your opponent has a submarine with missiles in the bushes. The same one that the White House announced on August 12 that it would be sending closer to Iran, deciding that the news about the US fleet being put on combat alert in the Mediterranean Sea on August 5 was not enough.
Coming to a duel with swords and a machine gun is unsportsmanlike, as they say now in the Russian Federation, having forgotten the word “asymmetrical”, recently popular there. Symmetrical means sending Netanyahu with a report to Golda Meir. The article in the “Jewish Chronicles” suggests a duel in the style of assassins and special services to the IRGC. How Israel will respond if the IRGC succeeds is also known – early elections.
There is another nuance, writes Klimovsky, Great Britain has long had the right to turn Moscow into ashes, if you follow the instructions of Ayatollah Khamenei. For the poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko with tea with polonium, the murder of Berezovsky and the poisoning with Novichok of the Skripal family, their cat and two guinea pigs. But even the Palestinians living in Great Britain do not demand this. If they demand it, they still will not receive consent from the government, which has calculated all the nuances of a missile strike on the Russian Federation.
In Tehran, since July 31, they have also been calculating the nuances of a missile strike on Israel, taking into account the results of the previous one on April 13. The calculations are not very encouraging – either this will be another fireworks display, and it will be good if Israel pretends, like last time, that the duel is over, or a solid “retaliatory strike” will fly at Iran with several options for continuation. In Moscow, they saw these doubts of Tehran and sent Shoigu with a message, writes Klimovsky – do not be afraid of anything, strike with all your might, Russia with you. But then the ZSU unexpectedly entered the Kursk region and nullified this message to Shoigu.
Whether by accident or design, these actions by Ukraine have dramatically reduced the likelihood of a missile attack by the Ayatollah regime on Israel.. The proponents of the assassin-style duel in Tehran now have a strong argument against those who would like to repeat the missile strike on Israel. The US has also demonstrated in various ways its determination to side with Israel in this case.
There was also a third component, writes Klimovsky – the election of a new leader of Hamas, which took place underground in Gaza on August 6, and it was Yahya Sinwar. Informed people claimed that Sinwar would soon agree to return the hostages, conclude a truce and begin detailed negotiations with Israel. The US would support this and would put pressure on Netanyahu, whom Biden told on August 4 to “stop talking nonsense”. Since August 10, Turkish media have confirmed such statements by informed people, citing their sources in the Erdogan government and Hamas. The US State Department also reported that it had approached allied states, including Turkey, with a request to persuade the Iranian government not to do stupid things and abandon the idea of a missile attack on Israel. If the IRGC wants to continue its vendetta, then let it play by the rules of the assassins.
The relevance of the vendetta for Iran will be sharply reduced and it will become a private matter for the IRGC when it is officially known that Sinwar and Hamas are returning the hostages and sitting down at the negotiating table.
The Turkish newspaper “Freedom” (Hurriyet) confidently wrote that Sinvar was going to negotiate, and TASS quoted this on August 14. TASS had good reasons for quoting.
Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority in Israel, suddenly appeared in Moscow on August 13. He was talkative in his meaningless interviews, where the key point was: I have come to consult with old friends. The cunning Abbas learned through his sources in Hamas that Sinwar was indeed preparing for final negotiations and immediately rushed to Moscow to insist on his participation in them.. Abbas's appearance in Moscow is one of the serious indicators that the process has begun and on August 15, Qatar is expecting the start of a new round of negotiations between Hamas and Israel.
But again, there is a nuance, writes Klimovsky: Moscow needs large-scale military operations in the Middle East, not all this with negotiations. Shoigu's mission failed, largely due to the entry of the ZSU into the Kursk region.
Shoigu is not a downed pilot and not a candidate for jail, as Professor Solovey assures. People like that are not sent to Iran and are not seated first at the right hand of “Putin” at meetings about the situation in the Kursk region. Moscow will clearly be building new schemes if the Iranian attack does not work out.
First symptom this – Abbas said that in Moscow he was invited to Kazan for the BRICS summit in the status of outreach, or pusher, if we speak in Russian. There he will push the issue of Palestine from the river to the sea and call himself its sole and authorized representative. In the autonomy, as in Gaza, there have also been no elections for a long time.
In this context, Klimovsky writes, The ZSU operation in the Kursk region appears to be part of a larger operation to save Israel and part of a global operation to prevent an active war between Iran and its proxies with Israel, the United States, Saudi Arabia and a number of Arab countries.
For Moscow, which cannot push China to seize Taiwan or Kim Jong-un to attack South Korea, this situation was a convenient opportunity. send Iran to such a local war, which can then be called a war between the global South and the global West.
For the third year, Moscow has been unable to present its attack on Ukraine as such a war, and it is afraid to attack the global West alone, and therefore is building schemes to create allies.
This is identical to how Hitler gave Hungary part of Romania and Transcarpathia, and promised Romania part of Ukraine in return. He gave Bulgaria Thessaloniki in Greece and Northern Macedonia, and promised Italy half of Africa and a piece of France, stimulating participation in his war. In Moscow, too, since 2014 they have been promising Hungary, Poland and Romania a piece of Ukraine, but it does not work. In the new Moscow geography, Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are already the far and wild West.
In Kursk region, the ZSU covered Israel, but who and when will cover the ZSU and Ukraine from air attacks? Especially Sumy, Kharkov and Chernigov regions. The shelling of Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa also does not stop.
Trump promises decisive diplomacy and a lot of different weapons if diplomacy fails, but he is only a candidate, and Kamala Harris is the current vice president. But she hasn’t even promised anything yet. Is she waiting for official confirmation as a candidate at the convention on August 19? If so, then the group of progressive-regressive Obamaites continues to stir up trouble in Moscow’s interests.
Sergey Klimovsky – Ukrainian historian and blogger.
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Sergey Klimovsky is a candidate of historical sciences, historian and archaeologist. For about twenty-seven years, Sergey Klimovsky was engaged in excavations on the territory of the Ukrainian capital, during which time he managed to examine more than two hectares of ancient Kyiv. In addition, he is the creator of the Kyiv public museum “Zamkova Gora”. However, Sergey Klimovsky received the greatest popularity and fame on the Internet as a blogger.
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