- September 8, 2024
- 11:53 pm
- World News
Western countries have stated that Iran's transfer of missiles to Russia violates all “red lines,” but no concrete actions have followed. The “axis of evil” no longer responds to the “deterrent factor” and threats, which is an alarming signal not only for Ukraine but also for Jerusalem.
In Israel, commenting on the situation, they draw attention to the “ability and desire” of the West to resist Iranian expansion. If Tehran, despite all the warnings and threats, agrees to transfer missiles to Russia, then this is an “alarm signal for Israel.” It is probably not worth counting on Western pressure in the confrontation with Iran.
On September 7, 2024, Iran's mission to the UN officially “denied the report” that Tehran had transferred hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. However, Western media, citing anonymous sources, claim that Iran has already transferred Fath-360 missiles to Russia, BBC analyzes.
The issue of rapprochement between Iran and Russia in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was discussed at both the G7 and NATO summits. It was declared there that “any transfer of missiles would mean a sharp increase in Iran's support for Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine.” The G7 leaders also warned that they would impose coordinated sanctions against Iran if it transferred the missiles.
Reuters (again relying on anonymous sources in European intelligence) wrote a month ago that dozens of Russian military personnel were undergoing training in Iran to use these missiles.
The Fateh-360 is a missile with a range of up to 120 km and a warhead of 150 kg, with a circular error probable of up to 30 meters. It is a smaller version of the Fateh-110, a more powerful missile system.
For two years, American media outlets have claimed that Iran is preparing to transfer ballistic missiles to Russia. According to sources, this has already happened, although Washington has neither confirmed nor denied this information. CNN reported that Iran “already transferred” short-range ballistic missiles to Russia for the war against Ukraine.
The Wall Street Journal and other Western media outlets claim that Iran has already sent short-range missiles to Russia. European and American officials are talking about preparing sanctions in response to Tehran's actions.
Reuters previously reported that Iran had transferred 400 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles to Russia, although the United States and Iran denied the claims. However, in August, information about Iran's plans to transfer Fath-360 missiles resurfaced in the media, and in September, Bloomberg confirmed this. The Times also reports that Iran has already sent more than 200 ballistic missiles to Russia.
The World's Reaction to Ballistic Missiles for Russia
The White House called Iran's possible transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia a “dramatic escalation.” US National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett told Reuters: “Any transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran's support for Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine.”
He also recalled that since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the United States has warned of a growing military partnership between Moscow and Tehran. That is why the White House is concerned about information about a possible transfer of missiles.
However, Iran's mission to the UN denied the missile transfer and reiterated Tehran's unchanged position on the conflict in Ukraine. The statement said Iran considered providing military aid to the parties to the conflict “inhumane” because it increases the number of casualties and destroys infrastructure.
At the same time, Iran has repeatedly denied transferring Shahed drones to Russia for strikes on Ukraine, although these drones, renamed Geran, have been used on Ukrainian territory since the fall of 2022. There is evidence that some of these UAVs were produced in Iran, and some at a plant in Russia using Iranian technology.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles is part of a strategic partnership between Iran and Russia. In exchange for the missiles, Iran is likely to expect to receive modern Su-35 fighter jets from Russia. This issue was discussed in August during Sergei Shoigu’s visit to Tehran. Iran has also requested Russia’s help in modernizing its cyber capabilities and missile and space programs.
What is dangerous about these missiles?
Since the first days of the full-scale war, Russia has been actively using ballistic missiles, in particular the Iskander M, to strike key Ukrainian targets, such as air defense systems, missile systems, command posts, and energy facilities. Ballistic missiles have a number of advantages: they fly to their target along a vertical trajectory at high speed, have a powerful warhead, and are highly accurate, making them difficult to intercept.
Ukraine has a limited number of Patriot and SAMP-T systems, which are capable of shooting down Russian ballistic missiles. However, the active use of Iskanders has led to their exhaustion in Russia. According to Ukrainian intelligence, as of August last year, Russia had about 270 Iskanders, and their production amounted to 30 missiles per month. In August of this year alone, Russia used 61 Iskander missiles or their North Korean equivalent, the KN-23.
The KN-23, which was first used in December 2023, although it has a range of up to 900 km, has proven to be inaccurate and unreliable. According to Defense Express, half of the missiles fired simply exploded in the air before reaching their targets.
The Kremlin is faced with the issue of finding new ballistic missiles to continue attacks. Iranian Fateh-360 missiles have a range of 75-120 km and are highly accurate. The more powerful Fateh-110 missiles, which have been discussed in Western media, have a range of up to 300 km. Expert Fabian Hinz notes: “These missiles are highly accurate, destructive, with warheads weighing over 500 kg.” Fateh-110 missiles can be used in poor weather conditions and are distinguished by the speed of preparation for launch.
Hinz also stresses that the Fateh-110 missiles can cause significant damage and can only be intercepted by systems such as the Patriot. However, Ukraine does not have enough of these systems to protect the entire territory.
To use these missiles effectively, intelligence data is needed, especially against moving targets, which poses a challenge for Russia.
Threats to Israel
Iran’s transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia poses serious threats to Israel for several important reasons. First, it demonstrates the close military cooperation between the two countries, which increases their leverage in international conflicts, especially in regions where they have common interests, such as the Middle East. This partnership could lead to an increase in Iran’s military capabilities, which poses a direct threat to Israel’s security.
The important point is that Iran, despite numerous international warnings, continues to transfer weapons to Russia. This shows that Western sanctions and threats are losing their effectiveness, meaning that the West can no longer be relied upon to restrain Iranian actions, which is alarming for Israel. This situation reinforces the perception that Iran is acting without fear of serious consequences, which could directly affect Israel if Tehran decides to take aggressive steps against it.
Moreover, Iran’s growing military strength, possibly bolstered by the delivery of Russian fighter jets and other technologies that could be transferred in exchange for missiles, increases the likelihood of military escalation in the region. Israel could find itself in a difficult situation if Iran, having received such weapons, decides to act more aggressively in the Middle East context, making this exchange extremely dangerous for Israel.
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