Due to Rosstat’s closure of mortality information, the Register of Inheritance Cases (RIC) has become a reliable source on Russia’s combat losses in the war with Ukraine.
Since 2023, “Meduza” and “Mediazona” have been researching this database and noticed an accumulation of new data over the past six months, indicating a significant increase in the losses of the domestic army. The number of killed exceeded two thousand people per week, and in the last months of 2024, apparently reached three thousand.
A new element that has appeared in the assessment methods is the legal recognition of missing persons as deceased. This practice can significantly alter the overall perception of military personnel mortality. The emergence of this trend is especially relevant for loss assessments up to the summer of 2025.
In 2023, “Meduza” and “Mediazona” began analyzing the RIC to find out how many military personnel died in the war. Ukrainian data does not have a similar source that would allow for the same assessment. The establishment of loss estimates is based on names, dates of death, and other data available in the register. This source allows for a more comprehensive study compared to named lists, which, despite their reliability, still remain incomplete.
The framing of the analysis leads to the RIC becoming the second independent source that helps correlate data and create a more complete picture of the losses. The data collection process is quite labor-intensive, as it requires analyzing millions of inheritance cases.
The study of loss dynamics shows that the level of losses increases every year. In particular, in 2024, losses amounted to about 93 thousand military personnel, which is almost twice as much compared to 2023. Estimates for the last months become uncertain, as the relatives of the deceased have time to open cases, making fresh data in the RIC incomplete.
The works analyze not only the number of losses but also their distribution. Methodological approaches to research allow partially restoring missing data using auxiliary models. The results of the analysis confirm that the level of losses has significantly increased compared to previous years.
The increase in the number of missing persons is also recorded in judicial practice. Starting from the end of 2024, the number of missing cases increased to two thousand per week. It is characteristic that these cases mostly relate to military personnel. However, it is difficult to determine if all the missing died in Ukraine.
The increase in losses also coincides with the disappearance of military personnel, and statistical changes are recorded in the RIC regarding inheritance cases filed for such people. It is important to emphasize that military losses are determined taking into account time delays between death and the registration of the fact.
Thus, while significant undercounts are observed, further analysis and research of RIC data are required to obtain a complete and reliable overview of military losses.
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