Israel believes that Iran is close to collapse, but this assumption is not entirely accurate.

Israeli analysts are recording a sharp deterioration in the socio-economic situation in Iran. In expert circles, the phrase “quiet death” of the regime is increasingly heard, but assessments remain restrained: the crisis is deepening, but there is no automatic collapse of power.

Economic indicators look alarming even by Iranian standards. The budget deficit has reached record levels, inflation has exceeded 50%, and food prices have risen by about 60% over the year. The national currency has effectively depreciated — the rial exchange rate has approached 1.3 million per dollar. Against this backdrop, the authorities made an expected but painful decision — they raised fuel prices, which almost always triggers a new wave of price increases for everything else.

Energy and water as a factor of instability

Financial problems are compounded by systemic failures in basic infrastructure. The Islamic Republic is unable to meet domestic demand for electricity and water supply. Even with favorable weather — rainfall and snowfalls — reservoirs will not be able to recover to a safe level by next summer.

For a country with rapidly growing megacities and chronic management problems, this means increased social tension, especially in the regions.

The specter of new protests

The combination of these factors heightens expectations of a new wave of mass protests, comparable to the demonstrations of 2019 and 2022. Some commentators draw parallels with the late USSR of the late 1980s — a period when economic decay was faster than political changes.

However, analysts themselves warn: analogies should not be absolutized.

Why the regime has not yet fallen

The key problem for opposition sentiments is the lack of conditions for forming a broad anti-government coalition. Iranian society is fragmented, protests are local in nature and rarely grow into a nationwide movement with a unified center.

There is also no split within the security forces. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) remains loyal to the regime and continues to serve as its main support. As long as this factor remains, the threat of an immediate collapse of power remains rather theoretical.

Conclusion without illusions

Experts agree on one thing: the prospects for a quick fall of the Iranian regime are limited. The crisis is deepening, the social base is narrowing, but the system still controls the key levers of power.

At the same time, Jerusalem emphasizes: weakening Iran — economically, technologically, and politically — remains an important task for reducing the threat to Israel and the entire region. It is too early to draw conclusions, but ignoring what is happening is dangerous. It is in this sober and pragmatic key that the situation around Iran continues to be analyzed by NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency.