Israel and the West as a Factor of Fear: Why Dictatorships Are Nervous Again

Criminal and despotic regimes fear not sanctions or statements. They are only frightened by one thing — a force that surpasses them and is ready to be applied. After the swift collapse of Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela in the first weeks of the new year, this signal was heard far beyond Latin America. In many capitals of autocracies, it became evident: democracy is once again reminding of itself not with words, but with actions.

The protests that swept through all 31 provinces of Iran became part of this same process. The harshest regimes of modern times — from neo-Maoist China to the autocracy in Moscow and especially the medieval theocracy in Tehran — have long learned to use surveillance technologies, digital control, and censorship to maintain power. But there is a force that continues to evoke genuine fear in them: the free West, offering its citizens a more attractive model of life and possessing obvious military superiority when it has the political will to act.

The Venezuelan precedent became alarming for them. Although the arrest of Maduro and his extradition to New York have not yet led to the complete dismantling of the chavista system, the new leadership of the country, headed by Delcy Rodríguez, demonstrated a willingness to challenge the West. In the first hours after the change of power, Caracas received ambassadors from China, Russia, and Iran, betting on confrontation rather than compromise.

The Iranian people, in turn, are increasingly seeing the vulnerability of their own oppressors. This became especially noticeable after the so-called twelve-day war in the summer, when Israel carried out about 360 strikes on Iranian targets in 27 provinces. According to experts, these attacks set back the Iranian nuclear program by years and shattered the myth of the regime’s complete invulnerability.

Discontent within Iran crossed a critical threshold back in 2022 after the killing of 22-year-old Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, detained allegedly for violating strict dress code norms. A wave of protests under the slogan “Woman, Life, Freedom” swept across the country. The authorities’ response was demonstratively brutal: according to various reports, hundreds of civilians were killed, with mass arrests and cases of sexual violence recorded.

Tehran has been building an external line of defense for decades — the so-called “axis of resistance,” uniting controlled terrorist groups. However, this structure also proved vulnerable. Hamas, controlling the Gaza Strip, suffered heavy losses after the attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent response.

Hezbollah, drawn into the confrontation, was seriously weakened after the elimination of its leadership, including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. The remaining structures found themselves under pressure to disarm. The Bashar Assad regime in Syria is also experiencing a deep decline, and the Yemeni Houthis, remaining Iran’s last active ally, are under increasing pressure from the Arab coalition.

Even Tehran’s external patrons are showing the limits of their capabilities. Russia is bogged down in the war against Ukraine, which, contrary to the Kremlin’s expectations, managed to strike Russian territory. China prefers caution and avoids direct confrontation. Events in Venezuela showed: air defense systems and loud rhetoric do not guarantee protection in the event of decisive US actions.

Against this backdrop, Washington’s support for Iranian protesters has gained special significance. President Donald Trump publicly declared his readiness to support the Iranian people in their quest for freedom. This fundamentally distinguishes the current moment from 2009, when the Barack Obama administration never decided to take a clear position, which was later recognized as a mistake.

Today, technologies like Starlink from SpaceX allow Iranians to bypass internet blockades and maintain communication with the outside world. Few remember that before the 1979 revolution, Iran was an ally of the West and Israel. The potential fall of the current regime could return this country to a completely different geopolitical configuration.

If the 90-million-strong Iranian people manage to rid themselves of the power that has ruined the lives of several generations, it will become one of the most significant shifts in world politics in decades — and a step towards a more stable and secure world. It is in this context that what is happening today in Iran and around it is viewed by NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, recording how strength, will, and choice are once again beginning to change the course of history.