Bets on War: How Army Data Turned into Profit on Polymarket

The story, which the court allowed to be published, quickly went beyond the narrow professional dispute of lawyers.
It concerns how information obtained during service could become a tool for earning on an international forecasting platform.

The figures involved are a civilian and army reservists.
The investigation is being conducted by special services and the cyber divisions of the prosecutor’s office.

How the betting scheme worked

According to the prosecution, access to classified materials did not come from outside.
It was related to the official duties of one of the suspects.

Then, as investigators believe, the information was passed to an acquaintance, a civilian, who acted on the Polymarket platform.
Registration there is possible under fictitious data, transactions are conducted in digital currencies, and users make predictions on the likelihood of various events — from politics to military operations.

Last summer, observers noticed a peculiarity: a new account with no activity history suddenly placed large sums on specific dates and parameters of an Israeli strike on Iran.

There were several forecasts.
Until the end of June.
Until July.
Separately — on a specific day.
And even on the timing of the operation’s completion.

When all this coincided with reality, the profit was estimated to have reached approximately 153 thousand dollars.

The security system considered that there were too many coincidences.

Why the case was considered a threat to the state

The publication permission was issued by the Tel Aviv District Court.
However, the names of the figures involved and a significant portion of the materials remain closed.

In a joint statement by Shabak, the Israeli Ministry of Defense, and the Israeli Police, it is emphasized: the use of classified information for betting creates a real risk for army actions and for the country’s security.

The wording sounds dry, but there is a clear logic behind it.
If the market begins to “know” more than society, it can affect the behavior of opponents, economic processes, and diplomatic calculations.

This is why the investigation was conducted not as a curiosity, but as a national-level incident.

Military observers reported on the events at various times, among them — Roi Sharon from Kan 11.
Military intelligence structures also conducted checks.

What the suspects are accused of

In the morning, the prosecution presented an indictment.
The text does not include charges of espionage or intent to deliberately harm the state.

The motive is described as financial.

Nevertheless, the list of charges is severe: corrupt actions, interference with justice, crimes against security.
Lawyers emphasize that the mere attempt to profit from classified data is already seen as undermining trust in the system.

Amid rumors of allegedly involved “very high” figures, today’s publication played the role of a cold shower.
It concerns a reservist and his acquaintance, not the leadership.

But the problem is broader than names.

The question of where the line between knowledge and abuse lies has once again become the center of public discussion.
Especially in an era when digital platforms allow information to be instantly turned into money.

This is why, as observers note, the topic has gone far beyond a criminal case and has become a conversation about new security risks — a conversation that is regularly raised on the platform NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency.

The next court sessions should determine how the responsibility of each participant will be interpreted.

The end of this story is yet to come.