The German tabloid BILD is once again spinning the old theme: trust Moscow — prepare to be left alone. The formula sounds harsh, but it has specific cases that are now being recalled more often — from Latin America to the Middle East and the Caucasus.
And it’s not about “friendship” in general. It’s about what happens when a regime or army, tied to Russian support, gets into real trouble — and waits for at least a gesture, at least a signal that they won’t be abandoned.
Venezuela: a stress test for Russia
The most recent episode is the story around Nicolás Maduro and the actions of the USA in early January 2026. According to several media reports, Washington increased military and sanction pressure, including a naval component and interceptions of oil logistics related to “shadow” shipments.
The most unpleasant moment for Moscow is the public pause. Amid the resonance, at least a loud reaction from the Kremlin was expected, but it appeared restrained, sometimes almost absent. Support was not given firsthand, and certainly not in the format of “we are nearby” or “we will intervene.”
For Caracas, this reads simply: when it gets really hot, Moscow is in no hurry to pay the price for an ally — especially if the price is measured in real resources and risks.
Iran: partnership on paper, caution in practice
The second example is Russia’s behavior amid the Israeli-Iranian escalation of 2025.
Moscow publicly criticized Israeli strikes, spoke about international law and “inadmissibility.” But beyond that — without a step that could be considered real military “insurance” for Tehran. From an ally’s perspective, this looks like a set of statements that do not change the situation on the ground.
For Israel, the practical layer is important here: the weaker Iran’s sense of external support, the more it relies on proxy structures and asymmetric responses. This raises regional risks, even if “big war” is not desired by anyone.
Syria: when the regime falls, only a ticket to Moscow remains
The story of Syria is the third case that is placed alongside when talking about “betrayal of allies.”
Damascus fell, and Bashar Assad ended up in Russia. Yes, asylum is also help. But this is help not to the state and not to the ally’s army, but a personal “evacuation” of the leader. For everyone else, the signal is clear: the Kremlin knows how to close a political chapter when support becomes too costly.
Armenia and Karabakh: breaking illusions around allied treaties
The fourth point is the Caucasus.
After the events around Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia accumulated disappointment with how allied mechanisms worked. At the moment when Yerevan expected help, it received political explanations and factual distance. The result is a blow to trust and a crisis of the very idea of “guarantees” within the previous architecture.
There is no need to argue about legal formulations here. People hear something else: “at the moment of threat, you will be explained why this does not fit under the treaty.”
Why this is important specifically in 2026
Because the war against Ukraine is the main “devourer” of Russia’s resources: money, weapons, people, attention. When other directions arise simultaneously, the Kremlin chooses where to pay the price — and more often chooses Ukraine as a priority, while giving others statements, symbolic gestures, or silence.
Against the backdrop of the story with Venezuela, it is also about oil, sanctions, and naval power: the West increasingly acts against shadow chains harshly and practically. Any ally of Moscow automatically falls into the risk zone — even if their problem is not directly about Ukraine.
What follows from this
If you remove emotions, one conclusion remains: “Russian security guarantees” look stable until they need to be paid with a real price.
And this concerns not only distant regimes. Any country or structure that builds security on Moscow’s promises should keep in mind the scenario: at a critical moment, you may be left with beautiful words — and without support.
In the end, the question is not whether “Russia is strong,” but how many allies are ready to believe again that they will not be exchanged for a more important goal. NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency records this trend as one of the key factors of 2026: trust in geopolitics burns faster than oil, and it can no longer be restored with just press releases.
