- October 3, 2025
- 3:09 pm
- Ukraine
The upgrade of ballistic missiles in Russia complicates their interception, posing new challenges for Ukrainian air defense systems. The transfer of additional Patriot systems from foreign partners could be an important step in combating the high speed and maneuverability of modern missiles.
How do maneuvers enhance defense?
Military expert Pavel Narozhny explains that the “Kinzhal” missile is an improved version of the “Iskander.” At the initial stage of its trajectory, it reaches speeds of 10–12 Mach. In the final phase, the “Kinzhal” is capable of maneuvering, significantly complicating the interception task.
To shoot down such a missile, Patriot systems need to intersect the path of the enemy missile. Narozhny emphasizes that at high speeds, this becomes a serious problem. The system must react quickly, programming its missile for a predicted interception.
The closer the enemy missile approaches the final segment of its trajectory, the more crucial the precise distance calculation becomes. The Patriot warhead, weighing only a few hundred grams, is directed to this point, but with enemy missile maneuvers, strikes may miss.
The adaptation of Russian missiles allows them to perform unexpected maneuvers in the final stage, causing Patriot systems to lose the target. This modification significantly complicates interception.
Modernization and its consequences
According to the Financial Times, the level of successful interceptions in August was 37%, but by September it had decreased to 6%. Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap noted that with the shortage of Patriot missiles, the number of hits also decreased.
If Russia has indeed improved its ballistics, the difficulties in intercepting missiles will increase. As Krivolap notes, the ability for such maneuvers was not observed before.
Additionally, the Russians may have changed control algorithms, introducing elements that Ukrainian specialists have not yet studied. This makes the interception process more complex. The strategy changes and requires new adaptation from Ukrainian air defense systems.
Ukraine’s air defense systems can effectively track distances for interception, but changes in the enemy’s operating principles require new approaches and high responsiveness.
How to increase the chances of successful interceptions?
Retired Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan notes that the interceptor missile must be calculated at the “meeting point.” If the missile changes its trajectory, the chances of interception are significantly reduced.
In his opinion, changing interception algorithms will become necessary to increase the chances of successful defense against missiles with quasi-ballistic trajectories. This will allow threats to be intercepted at the last segment, as close to the ground as possible.
Only the places where Patriot systems are deployed can provide serious protection. The need for additional systems is becoming increasingly apparent.
Lack of systems and the need to increase efficiency
The situation with intercepting “Kinzhal” missiles was initially complex, and the Russian side continues to complicate attack tactics. However, the presence of new systems can improve results. Experts say this when comparing the situation with past successes.
Serviceman of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Musiyenko emphasizes that the lack of Patriot systems is a serious challenge. Increasing their number will allow adaptation to changes on the battlefield.
Head of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation Serhiy Kuzan also points out the importance of acquiring modern systems, which will help create a reliable shield against attacking missiles. This depends on the decisions of international partners.
The overall situation requires systematic work aimed at countering new challenges in the war.
What is known about the delivery of new Patriot systems
- German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced plans to transfer two additional modern Patriot systems to Ukraine by the end of 2025, in cooperation with Norway.
- President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the receipt of one system from Israel, stating that two more are expected by autumn.
