Five Points of Risk: Where the World Could Plunge into a Major War in 2026

After the end of the Cold War, the West developed a sense that the era of global conflicts was gone forever. Nuclear deterrence was considered effective, international institutions stable, and major powers supposedly learned the lessons of the 20th century. However, the war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine shattered this optimism and brought back to the agenda issues that had long been preferred not to be spoken about aloud.

By early 2026, the world entered a phase of increased turbulence. Armed conflicts are occurring in several regions simultaneously, and where there is no shooting yet, preparations for a possible war are accelerating: armies are being expanded, missiles purchased, and military doctrines revised. Former US Navy officer Christian Orr, in an analytical piece for The National Security Journal, highlights five geographic zones where the risk of a regional conflict escalating into a global one is particularly high.

This is not about fantasies or “end of the world” scenarios. It is an analysis of real processes where history, nuclear weapons, and political ambitions dangerously intertwine.

Eastern Europe: the old fault line

The first and most obvious point of risk remains Eastern Europe. Russia continues its war against Ukraine, possessing the largest nuclear arsenal in the world. The Kremlin regularly uses nuclear rhetoric as a tool of pressure, addressing threats not only to Kyiv but also to NATO as a whole.

Particular concern is caused by provocations against Poland and the Baltic states. For these countries, such signals evoke direct historical associations — from the division of Europe in 1939 to Soviet dominance in the post-war period. Any incident between Russia and a NATO country could trigger the mechanism of collective defense, thus sharply expanding the scale of the conflict.

Taiwan and the South China Sea: the Chinese factor

The second risk zone is in Asia. China possesses the third-largest nuclear arsenal in the world and is increasingly demonstrating its readiness to defend its territorial claims by force. Pressure on Taiwan is intensifying, and China’s military activity in the South China Sea directly affects the interests of the US and its allies.

Simultaneously, Beijing is engaging in low-intensity conflicts with the Philippines, Japan, India, and Vietnam. It is Chinese expansion that has led to the formation of an informal strategic bloc of the US, Japan, Australia, and India. Any attempt at a forceful scenario around Taiwan will automatically involve several nuclear powers.

Korean Peninsula: war without an end

The third hotspot is the Korean Peninsula. The Korean War formally never ended with a peace treaty, but was only suspended by an armistice. North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program despite sanctions and international pressure.

Pyongyang views nuclear weapons as a guarantee of regime survival and actively cooperates with Russia and China. In the absence of a full-fledged peace agreement, any crisis — a missile test, a border incident, or a political provocation — can quickly escalate beyond a local conflict and affect the US, South Korea, and Japan.

Middle East: the Iranian-Israeli knot

The fourth risk zone is the Middle East, primarily Iran. Iran, despite strikes on its nuclear infrastructure and harsh sanctions, has not abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons. For Israel, this is a matter of direct national security.

The situation is complicated by Iran’s entry into a strategic alliance with Russia, China, and North Korea. Any direct conflict between Israel and Iran could draw several global players into the confrontation and turn a regional war into an international one.

South Asia: nuclear balance on the edge

The fifth risk point is the Indian subcontinent. India and Pakistan possess nuclear weapons and have been in a state of chronic confrontation for decades. Recent armed clashes have once again shown how unstable this balance is.

India is involved in a strategy to contain China but simultaneously purchases Russian weapons. Pakistan, in turn, cooperates with the US while maintaining close ties with Beijing. Such an intersection of interests makes any conflict in the region potentially international.

Why the risk has increased now

All these regions share one thing in common: the conflicts there are unresolved, merely frozen. Nuclear weapons have ceased to be solely a deterrent factor and are increasingly used as an element of political pressure. The world enters 2026 with weakened international mechanisms and growing distrust between powers.

Global war is not inevitable, but the likelihood of its occurrence today is higher than ten or even five years ago. This is why the analysis of such tension points has ceased to be an academic exercise and has become a practical security issue for Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

In this reality, even a local conflict can have global consequences — and this is precisely what NAnews — News of Israel | Nikk.Agency is recording today.