In the fall, the Kremlin intends to “turn off the lights” in Ukraine and solve the “old problem,” experts say.

The Russian occupation army, apparently, does not have specific plans for the fall and does not intend to introduce additional forces to achieve its goals. Expecting radical offensives is not worth it, but distracting attacks similar to those that occurred in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions are possible. Particularly likely is the accumulation of pressure on Kupyansk, attempts to gain a foothold on the left bank of the Oskol, as well as an intensified offensive on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk with the aim of full control over the Donetsk region.

The most vulnerable to attacks remain Pokrovsk, Kostiantynivka, as well as the junction directions of the Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions and the Kharkiv region. Single strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure are not excluded, which will also depend on the political situation and the increased capabilities of Ukrainian defense, including missile capabilities.

Israeli military observer David Sharp, in an interview on the autumn forecast topic, noted that the possibility of changes in the enemy’s action plan depends on the diplomatic situation, although such a breakthrough seems unlikely. Today, it seems that in the fall and winter, Russia will continue its methodical attempts to capture territory, repeating previous efforts. The first targets include Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, as well as attacks at the junctions of regions, trying to advance on old directions with greater costs.

Answering a question about the possibility of a new serious offensive, Sharp expressed the opinion that Russia does not have enough forces for this. Continued active attacks on already traditional directions, such as Kupyansk and sections along the Oskol, are expected, with the intention to significantly strengthen their positions. Strikes on infrastructure, targeting energy facilities, are also discussed, but here everything depends on political factors and assessments of the possible impact on the enemy’s rear.

During active hostilities, successes with Ukrainian forces’ counterattacks may arise. However, given the current situation at the front, it is difficult to talk about a complete interception of the initiative. There are national achievements, but some areas, like Pokrovsk, still remain under pressure. Alarming signals about the insufficiency of defensive positions are significant.

The problem for the Ukrainian side remains the numerical advantage of the Russian army, which complicates effective counteraction. It would seem that there is an opportunity to increase the number of their own forces, but in practice, this is a challenge. Speaking about potential prospects for assistance from the USA, a realistically balanced opinion suggests that even if the volume of military support significantly increases, it will not lead to the automatic defeat of the enemy.

Thus, despite favorable conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, comprehensive optimization of efforts and additional supplies are necessary for the situation to change in the desired direction. Without this, hopes for significant changes can be considered illusory.

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