- January 17, 2025
- 1:05 am
- World News
… it seems that this is not quite what Netanyahu hoped for when betting on Trump during the US presidential election…
Agreement between Israel and Hamas concluded (waiting for now) under active pressure from US President-elect Donald Trump, brought the long-awaited news: Israeli hostages held in Gaza will finally be released.
However, this truce raises questions and concerns among analysts. They believe that A similar model of “conflict resolution” can be applied to Ukraine, which poses significant risks.
“We are the first to feel the bitter cost of Trump’s “peacekeeping,” we were forced into a shameful “peace,” enormous pressure was applied,” wrote journalist and ally of the Israeli Prime Minister Amit Segal.
Against the backdrop of outrage in Israel, “Ukraine must also prepare for shame and capitulation,” experts write, since it became clear that in order to achieve a media effect, as well as its own glory Trump puts pressure on those sides of the conflict on which he has leverage. That is, these are usually allies, and not the opposite side.
Kyiv was alarmed by the haste with which Trump seeks to superficially achieve only a media effect, as well as the fact that it is easier to try to force Ukraine to any peace and concessions than Moscow.
Israeli agreement with Hamas: victory or concession?
- Key achievements of the agreement:
- The release of Israeli hostages, which was an important step.
- A ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which provided a temporary respite.
- Reaction within Israel:
- Far-right politicians called the deal a “capitulation to terrorists.”
- Prime Minister Netanyahu finds himself in a difficult political situation due to pressure from the coalition and society.
- Analysts' opinion:
Analysts believe that this agreement does not solve fundamental problems and only temporarily freezes the conflict.
Analysts about a possible analogy with Ukraine
- Coercing Allies
Experts suggest that the United States may try to apply a similar model to Ukraine, putting pressure on allies rather than on the aggressor.
- Risks for Ukraine
- Kyiv may be forced to make concessions to Moscow, which will weaken its position.
- A scenario is possible in which Russia retains control over the occupied territories by formally concluding a “peace agreement.”
Analyst quote for “NAnews“:
“Ukraine, like Israel, risks finding itself in a situation where its security and long-term interests could be sacrificed for temporary political gains.”
Israeli experience: lessons for Ukraine
Israel has repeatedly reached agreements with Hamas, which generally have not resulted in long-term peace. Temporary truces only gave Hamas the opportunity to regain strength.
| Year | Event | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Military conflict | Ceasefire, restoration of Hamas |
| 2012 | Another escalation | Truce, increased donor assistance for terrorists |
| 2021 | Conflict with Israel | Temporary truce, reconstruction of Hamas infrastructure |
| 2023 | The last round of fighting | Agreement under US pressure, unsustainable truce |
Ukrainian-Israeli parallels
- External pressure
Israel and Ukraine regularly face international pressure, which often requires compromise.
- Security Threat
Both countries are dealing with aggressors who are using temporary truces to recuperate.
- US role
US influence in both situations remains key, but does not always take into account the long-term interests of the allies.
Conclusion
The situation with the Israeli-Hamas agreement shows how dangerous short-term solutions for the sake of political dividends are. Analysts warn that Ukraine could face a similar scenario if US pressure on its allies increases.
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