Israel among buyers: Ukraine reduces wheat flour exports

The Ukrainian agricultural market is adjusting expectations for the 2025/26 season. This concerns external supplies of wheat flour, which, according to new estimates, will be lower than last year’s figures.

For importing countries, this is a matter of prices, logistics, and food sustainability.

How the overall forecast is changing

Analysts suggest that total exports may amount to about 65 thousand tons. This is a few percent less than the previous marketing year, and the trend is already visible in current data.

The decline is recorded month by month.

The pace of shipments in mid-winter was particularly indicative.

Figures for the first seven months of the season

From July to January, Ukraine sent abroad 37.5 thousand tons. Minus seven percent compared to the same period a year earlier.

January fell more sharply — about 4.3 thousand tons, which is almost a quarter lower than last winter.

The market reacts quickly: traders are revising contracts, buyers are diversifying directions.

Who is buying less and who is increasing

Traditional clients remain on the list, but the volumes are different. Moldova, Palestine, and Czech Republic form a significant share of demand, but they have reduced purchases this season.

Moldova reduced imports to about 11.4 thousand tons. The Palestinian direction decreased to 7.3 thousand. The Czech Republic reduced the volume even more noticeably.

At the same time, there are counter movements.

Israel and Spain, on the contrary, increased, purchasing about three and almost three thousand tons respectively. For exporters, this is an opportunity to partially compensate for the decline through other channels.

This is why publications on platforms like NAnews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency are closely monitored by businesses: the market here is perceived not abstractly, but through real contracts and the needs of the milling industry.

Why buyers are changing strategy

Importers focus on grain prices, freight, currency risks, and political factors. Any fluctuation in the Black Sea region is immediately reflected in tenders.

Stability becomes a commodity in itself.

Production is decreasing — and this is a key factor

The revision of export expectations is related not only to demand but also to internal capabilities. Over the same seven months, Ukraine produced about 510 thousand tons of flour.

This is about a tenth less than last year’s level.

Less raw material — less flexibility in forming external batches.

What is happening with crops

A separate alarming line is the future harvest. Experts allow for a reduction in wheat acreage in 2026 by about five percent.

If the forecast is confirmed, pressure on exports will continue.

How this affects the region

For the Middle East and Europe, Ukrainian flour remains an important element of the food chain. Any changes are immediately incorporated into the plans of processors and networks.

Contracts become more cautious.

Suppliers more often work at a short distance.

In the coming months, the balance between domestic production and external demand will determine whether it will be possible to maintain current positions in the markets or if the geography of sales will continue to change.