Pause without peace: when the war in Ukraine might stop — and why the risk of resuming fighting remains

Military actions in Ukraine may transition to a phase of suspension in 2026, however, the risk of their resumption remains as early as 2028. This forecast was voiced by General Igor Romanenko, former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, analyzing the military, political, and diplomatic factors of the current conflict.

The assessment was made during a public chat on the Ukrainian platform “Glavred” and concerns not a scenario of sustainable peace, but a possible temporary pause in active hostilities.

Why it’s about a pause

According to Romanenko, any agreements with Russia remain extremely unreliable. Historical experience shows that Moscow has repeatedly violated agreements, using truces for regrouping, accumulating resources, and preparing new stages of pressure.

That is why a possible ceasefire in 2026, if it occurs, will not mean the end of the war as such.

The paragraph is short — because the conclusion is straightforward.

The US factor and the role of Donald Trump

The general paid special attention to Donald Trump’s position. In his assessment, the former US president is interested in a quick end to the war primarily from a political point of view — including in the context of his own ambitions and desire for the status of a peacemaker.

However, the internal situation in the US, falling ratings, and pressure from various interest groups limit Washington’s ability to act consistently. Romanenko emphasizes that Ukraine is not a priority for Trump — much greater interest is aroused by financial and trade aspects, including arms sales to European countries.

Sanctions and rhetoric without action

According to the general, statements about tough sanctions against Russia have not been fully implemented. Discussions about the possible transfer of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine he calls part of a political game, not backed by real decisions.

As a result, the negotiation process is delayed, and responsibility for the lack of progress in some cases is shifted to the Ukrainian side.

The issue of security guarantees

The key problem that Kyiv insists on is the lack of effective security guarantees. Ukraine seeks mechanisms comparable to those that the US provides to allies such as Israel or Japan.

At the moment, according to Romanenko, the West is not ready to offer Ukraine a similar level of commitments. This creates a situation where any concessions from Kyiv are not accompanied by real guarantees of protection.

Moscow’s position remains tough

Russia, as the general notes, continues to insist on its own terms, demanding territorial and political concessions without reciprocal obligations. This approach excludes the possibility of a sustainable compromise and increases the risk of the conflict returning after a temporary pause.

Europe: support without parity

European countries continue to provide Ukraine with military and financial assistance, but its volumes remain insufficient to achieve parity with Russian forces.

An additional factor of uncertainty is the discussed intention of Trump to reduce or withdraw the American military contingent from Europe, which potentially weakens the collective security system on the continent.

Why 2028 sounds like a risk

Romanenko believes that Russia may already be planning new stages of the conflict, focusing on the end of the current decade. In this context, 2028 is considered a possible point of return to active hostilities — after resource recovery and changes in the international situation.

He also does not rule out that China may be involved in diplomatic processes, but Beijing’s interests in this matter remain not fully understood.

Symbolic dates and the threat of shelling

The general separately warned about the risk of strikes on Ukrainian cities on symbolic and festive dates. According to him, such tactics have been used before and remain part of psychological pressure.

This requires Ukraine to maintain heightened readiness even during possible negotiations.

Conclusion

Igor Romanenko’s forecast boils down to one thing: even if the active phase of the war weakens, it will not mean its end. Without real security guarantees and sufficient strengthening of defense potential, the risk of conflict resumption remains.

That is why, in his assessment, the key factor remains not diplomatic rhetoric, but the ability of the Ukrainian army to maintain and increase military strength — a conclusion that directly affects regional security, including in the Middle East, which is closely monitored by NANews — Israel News | Nikk.Agency, linking the Ukrainian front with the global geopolitical picture.