- January 29, 2025
- 9:48 pm
- Middle East
The situation in Syria accepts a new revolution: after the overthrow of the Bashar Assad regime, his successors demanded from Russia not only to issue a escaped dictator, but also to pay compensation for the destruction that remained after a military operation.
According to Reuters, the Kremlin refused the transaction. In today statement Syrian leadership of Moscow put forward other requirements – “”Compensation, reconstruction and restoration. ”
The Kremlin, which invested billions of dollars in support of Assad, faced a difficult choice.
As reported on January 29, 2025 Reutersnegotiations between the Russian delegation, led by Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov and the new authorities of Syria, came to a dead end.
Damascus demands:
- Issuance of Bashar al -Assad and his environmentfled to Russia in December 2024.
- Financial compensation For the destruction and support of the Assad regime.
- Reconstruction and restoration of infrastructure.
Russia refused to give Assad, fearing that this would undermine the trust of the allies, as well as the preservation of its strategic military facilities in the region. However, Damascus is not ready to compromise.
Moscow risks losing base in Tartus and Khmeimim
The main subject of disputes is Russian military bases.
Tartus – The only port in the Mediterranean Sea, providing logistics for the Russian fleet.
Khmeimim – The key air base, with which Russia carried out strikes in Syria and Africa.
The contract for the use of tartus was signed for 49 years With the Russian company Stroytransgaz. However, in January 2025, the agreement was Torn.
Russian ships already They are waiting for weeks permits for unloading in the port, and the reduction in activity at the Khmeimim air base suggests that the Kremlin is gradually losing control.
Israeli military analyst David Sharp notes:
“The Syrian authorities, unlike Assad in 2015, are negotiating with Russia from the perspective of power. Any outcome of these negotiations is the media and military defeat of Russia “.
Syria requires Assad's extradition – Moscow refuses
The leader of the new Syrian government, Ahmad al-Shara (he is Abu Muhammad al-Julani), publicly demanded the extradition of Bashar al-Assad. According to a source in Bloomberga request for an issuance was received during negotiations.
Al-Julani not only represents the new authorities, but also is the commander “Military Operations Management”What makes his requirement especially significant.
However, Vladimir Putin is not going to take Assada:
“Before that, he never refused his allies in this way”– says David Sharp.
Russian propaganda continues to call Assad a “legal president”, but in Syria itself his fate has already been decided.
Turkish position: Ankara enhances influence in the region
Russia is losing position, and Türkiye builds its influence. Two Turkish officials in an interview with journalists Reuters They said that Ankara:
- Offers Military support The new authorities of Syria.
- Ready to put Weapons and training For the Syrian army.
- Plans To oust Russia from military facilities in the region.
Moscow was faced with strict competition from Turkey, which supports the new authorities of Syria and seeks to squeeze the Kremlin from the region.
Russia loses influence in the Arab world
For decades, Moscow has strengthened its influence through Assad. However, his flight to Russia and the failure of negotiations with the new government The Kremlin’s weakness was revealed.
“Syria was the gates of Russia in the Arab world. Now these gates may slam “, – claims the source Bloomberg.
The strategic loss of Russia in Syria can become part of the general tendency to weaken the Kremlin in the international arena. Already now it is clear that the positions of the Russian Federation in the Middle East are steadily weakening, and time plays against Moscow.
Conclusion: what's next?
- Russia will not agree to the issuance of Assad – This will cause a crisis of confidence in the Kremlin’s allies.
- Moscow is not ready to pay compensation – It will hit the economy of the Russian Federation.
- Negotiations came to a standstill – Russia may lose military bases.
- Türkiye enhances influence – Ankara is ready to replace Moscow in Syria.
- Russia loses strategic positions in the Middle East – After Ukraine, this is another painful defeat.
So far the Kremlin is not ready to give up, but the new Syrian authorities negotiating from the standpoint of power. Moscow loses allies, influence and resources.
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