- August 4, 2024
- 10:23 pm
- Middle East
The Syrian army, which receives aid from Iran and Russia, is strengthening its position and plans to call up reservists for up to two years, reports “Ynet“According to Colonel Miri Eisin, a former senior intelligence officer and expert at the Counter Terrorism Center (ICT), “the Syrian army of 2024 is the result of 24 years of Bashar al-Assad's rule.”
Eizin also noted that the Syrian army is different from other regional armies and has a corps-based structure with Soviet-Russian integration, including tanks, infantry, artillery and engineering units. “Everything is integrated from the battalion level to the corps,” Colonel Eizin added.
According to Ynet, there was some competition between Russia and Iran for influence over the Syrian army until 2018. Colonel Miri Eizin, a former senior intelligence officer, noted: “Throughout the years of Russian intervention in Syria, the Syrian army has gradually become a slightly different army.” Eizin explained that the Syrian army stopped using tanks and switched to light infantry, and everything that was observed in the war between Russia and Ukraine also had an impact on Syria. “Theoretically, the 1st Corps has three divisions – two mechanized and one armored, but in practice it is difficult to say what they contain and whether they have weapons at all,” Colonel Eizin added.
According to Ynet, the war in Ukraine has distracted Russia from the competition, allowing Iran to strengthen its position in the Syrian army. Dr. Valensi noted: “We see a greater Iranian presence after the start of the war in Ukraine. Russia is reducing its investment in the 5th Corps, which was the most connected to the Russians in the Syrian army.” Dr. Valensi also emphasized that Russian involvement in the Syrian army was one of the reasons why Israel initially refused to take a clear stance against Russia at the start of the war with Ukraine.
However, Russian influence in the Syrian army is declining. “A few months ago, it was reported that Russia was cutting funding to the corps by 50%. They don’t have the time or resources to maintain it at the same level,” Dr. Valensi added. In addition, friction is emerging between Syrian and Russian military elements, leading to Russian complaints about being excluded from intelligence materials and professional activities. “Russian dominance is waning, and Iran is exploiting this vacuum,” Dr. Valensi concluded.
According to Ynet, the vacuum left by Russia is being filled by Iran, which was there much earlier. “I can say with certainty that the Iranians are very dominant in the Syrian army. Even if they do not send their people directly, they know how to create allies or representatives who identify with Iran and are loyal to it, like Maher Assad, the president’s brother,” says Dr. Valensi.
Since late 2016, the Iranians have been establishing two main organizations on the border with Israel: the Southern Command and Fayel Golan, which is essentially an extension of Hezbollah. They have a capable force on the border, ready to attack Israel with both ground forces and missiles. According to Dr. Valensi, they are not always easy to identify: “These Shiite militia fighters, Iranian proxies, sometimes wear Syrian army uniforms, which makes it very difficult to clearly distinguish between the army and the militias.”
The Syrian civil war is over, Assad regained control of the Syrian Golan Heights in the summer of 2018, but the army is still weak and faces numerous challenges, including budget constraints and a lack of quality personnel, while the entire country is in a severe economic crisis. Despite the years that have passed, the country has yet to recover. Although the restoration of civilian infrastructure is minimal and ranks low on the regime’s list of priorities, Assad has been heavily investing in rebuilding the military. Realizing that maintaining Assad’s rule requires military investment, the Russians have been helping him significantly by assisting in the reorganization of military units and the integration of militias formed during the civil war into the army.
According to Ynet, Colonel (ret.) Aisin notes that “The Syrian Air Force exists only on paper; they have not created a new force. Now they are starting to do so, but they have no aircraft. There is a Russian air base in the Alawite region, near Tartus, but it belongs to Moscow. The Syrians currently have no place to train pilots.”
What is the threat of the Syrian army to Israel on the border? “Since October 7, we have been talking about a 'terrorist army'. We use this term for Hamas and Hezbollah, but no one has defined what we mean by 'terrorist army'. I wonder if Assad's army is a 'terrorist army', where the merger was not from terror to army, but from army to terror,” says Colonel Eisin.
“I am concerned about the Syrian army because, just like Russia is committing crimes against humanity in the war against Ukraine using drone swarms, all the capabilities we see there are the concept of a 'terrorist army'. For example, targeting civilian targets without labeling them as such,” added Colonel Aisin. “I am afraid that they do not have conventional military capabilities, but what Assad's 'terrorist army' has built are unconventional asymmetric capabilities, such as terrorism.”
What do you mean by unconventional capabilities? “That they are prepared to create entire systems aimed against civilians, both in the biological and chemical spheres. Like Assad was prepared to use this against his own people.”
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