On November 4, 2026, the results of the midterm elections in the USA became known: the Democrats gained control over both houses of Congress. For Donald Trump, this means the loss of parliamentary support he relied on for the past two years. However, presidential powers have not disappeared. Moreover, until January 3, 2027, when the new Congress begins its work, Republicans retain their previous positions in the legislative branch.
Author: R.Verter — NANews
The question now is not only how much the Democrats can limit Trump. Equally important is what the president himself will undertake in the remaining weeks and how American policy towards Iran, Ukraine, and Cuba will change.
Iran: the war that hit the Republicans
The US and Israel war against Iran began on February 28, 2026. Eight months later, its consequences became one of the reasons for the dissatisfaction of American voters. Rising fuel prices and military campaign expenses have turned into a domestic political problem.
Vice President J.D. Vance directly linked the Republicans’ defeat to the war. Trump himself acknowledged its influence on the elections but stated that the decision for military action was necessary.
The White House faces two main directions: resuming large-scale strikes to achieve concessions from Tehran or negotiating to limit Iran’s nuclear program. A combination of military pressure and diplomacy is also not excluded.
For Israel, the cost of a new escalation is quite specific: possible retaliatory strikes, threats to American bases in the region, instability of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the new Congress will be able to challenge war funding and demand explanations from the Pentagon.
Trump retains the right to make military decisions. But continuing the campaign, which has already affected the election results, will inevitably become a subject of confrontation with lawmakers.
Ukraine: negotiations continue, but peace terms are not agreed
On November 10-11, trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the USA are scheduled in Abu Dhabi. The American side intends to discuss security guarantees, reducing the intensity of hostilities, and humanitarian issues.
The Kremlin confirmed the participation of a delegation led by Vladimir Medinsky. His appointment itself does not indicate Moscow’s readiness to abandon previous demands.
Therefore, the diplomatic process continues, although there are no grounds to declare the upcoming meeting a breakthrough yet.
Trump is interested in an agreement that can be presented as a result of American mediation. But Washington cannot independently determine the conditions for ending the war. Kyiv demands reliable security guarantees, while Moscow continues to seek political and territorial concessions.
There is another circumstance. Russia is trying to use the Iranian crisis in relations with the USA, offering mediation and hoping for reciprocal economic solutions. NANews wrote about this connection in the material about Moscow’s proposals on Iran and possible concessions on Ukraine.
The Democrats’ leadership in both houses may change the situation with American aid to Kyiv and sanctions against Russia. But this will not happen automatically: new decisions will require voting, and Trump will retain the right to veto.
In detail about why the negotiations between Washington, Moscow, and Beijing are not equivalent to an agreement with Ukraine, we discussed in a separate analysis of diplomatic initiatives.
Cuba: military threats and political reality
Cuba remains the third direction where Washington is increasing pressure. The Trump administration has expanded sanctions against Havana, and the president publicly allowed for military intervention.
However, an economic blockade, a limited operation, and an attempt to seize the island are completely different scenarios.
There is no confirmed decision on an invasion. A full-scale operation would require significant resources and create a new international crisis simultaneously with the ongoing war against Iran.
The Democratic majority in Congress will have the opportunity to investigate the administration’s actions in Latin America, including the legal grounds for military operations and the use of budgetary funds.
What changes for Israel
In Jerusalem, personal relations between the American president and the Israeli leadership are traditionally of great importance. But military aid, defense program funding, and arms supplies also depend on Congress.
On November 4, Reuters reported that Democrats might seek to revise American military support for Israel. Some lawmakers oppose certain arms supplies, while others propose broader restrictions.
This does not mean an immediate cessation of aid. But Israel faces an additional political problem: support from Washington increasingly depends on intra-party disagreements in the USA.
This is especially significant against the backdrop of the war with Iran. If Trump decides to continue large-scale operations and Democrats demand a reduction in corresponding expenses, Israel will be directly affected by the American budget confrontation.
Ukraine will face another side of the same situation: the parliamentary majority may seek to expand aid to Kyiv while simultaneously challenging the president’s decisions.
Until January 3: a period of uncertainty
The new Congress will be able to create investigative commissions, check the administration’s actions, and consider the issue of impeachment. However, impeachment does not mean automatic removal of the president: this requires the votes of two-thirds of the senators present.
Therefore, the Republicans’ defeat does not make Trump powerless. It changes the conditions in which he will have to act.
The nearest test will be decisions on Iran and the results of negotiations in Abu Dhabi. For Israel, it is especially important whether the American domestic political conflict will lead to changes in military cooperation.
These events are related but independent processes. The American elections have already changed the political balance in Washington. Whether this will turn into new military operations, diplomatic agreements, or budget confrontation will be shown by specific decisions of the administration and Congress.