Unexpected Consequences in Syria: Instability, Humanitarian Crisis, and the Influence of External Forces

Syrian War and Israel: Continuation of the Conflict

Syria has officially been at war with Israel since 1973. Failing to achieve victory in direct confrontation, Damascus began waging war by indirect methods, supporting Hamas and inviting Iran to strengthen its presence on Syrian territory.

Since the start of the civil war in Syria in 2011, President Bashar Assad has focused on retaining power, and for Israel, the priority has been to prevent the spread of violence beyond the Syrian border.

Military Cooperation between Iran and Syria

In 2005, Syria and Iran signed an alliance treaty, and over time Assad became increasingly dependent on Tehran as his regime weakened. At a certain stage, it was assumed that there were more than 13 naval bases with five divisions of Iranian troops in Syria, prompting Israel to repeatedly strike targets to prevent the buildup of military forces and armaments.

Israeli Strategy

Israel was mainly occupied not with war against Syria, but with active operations within the country itself. Before the attacks organized by Hamas in southern Israel on October 7, 2023, Jerusalem focused on preventing the smuggling of Iranian weapons to Hamas in Lebanon and destroying discovered weapons factories. Israel did not seek to overthrow Assad’s regime, preferring the stability of a known enemy to the risk of a radical Islamist dictator.

Return of the Conflict to Syria

The conflict in Syria escalated on October 14, 2023, when terrorists from the Palestinian Islamic Jihad began shelling Israel, leading to retaliatory strikes on the airports of Damascus and Aleppo. After this, Israel continued regular airstrikes. In particular, on September 8, 2024, nearly operational missile production plants in Masyaf were destroyed.

Increase in Attacks on Them

After the start of Israel’s ground campaign in Lebanon on September 30, 2024, airstrikes on targets in Syria intensified. Strikes were carried out on territories used for smuggling Iranian weapons, as well as on weapon depots of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In November, Israeli forces destroyed facilities used as command centers for the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.

Impact on the Assad Regime

Israel’s success against Hamas and its prior strikes on Iran in April distracted and weakened Assad’s allies. At the same time, his main patron, Russia, was occupied with the war in Ukraine. On December 8, a coalition of Syrian rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham broke through defense lines and reached the Presidential Palace in Damascus. The escalating situation prompted Assad to leave the country and seek political asylum in Moscow.

Initial Outcomes

Iran withdrew its troops from Syria, although its representatives downplayed the scale of the losses. General Behrouz Esbati acknowledged, “we suffered a defeat.” He also emphasized that the Assad regime refused to allow pro-Iranian militias to attack Israel.

Israel’s Control and Consequences

With the fall of the Assad regime and the approach of rebel forces to Israel’s borders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered control in the buffer zone according to the 1974 Disengagement Agreement. In January, Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the army would remain in this zone indefinitely. This situation effectively nullified ideas about returning part of the Golan for peace.

Air Raids and Infrastructure Destruction

Israel actively exploited the chaos caused by the collapse of Assad’s army, carrying out hundreds of airstrikes targeting key infrastructure and preventing the delivery of weapons to the rebels. The security center in Damascus and research centers where missiles and chemical weapons were developed were destroyed.

Unforeseen Consequences

Despite the absence of direct intentions by Israel to overthrow Assad’s regime, the disappearance of his power may result in unexpected consequences. If the newly formed authority renounces radical Islamic roots and signs peace agreements, Israel will achieve a result that long seemed impossible — turning an enemy into a partner.

International Reaction

The universal reaction to Assad’s overthrow from many experts is mixed. Although radical Sunni groups like HTS demonstrate a desire to be accepted in international politics, this may result in the emergence of a new jihadist adversary at Israel’s borders.

Syria has once again found itself at the center of international politics. Previously seeming unattainable, the likelihood of it gaining allied status with the USA now concerns many.